The countdown has begun for the January 2026 salary increase, which millions of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees are eagerly waiting for. Total six-month inflation, which will directly determine the pay rise retirees will receive in the new year, will become clearer with the release of the final inflation data for the year. This rate increase is important to maintain retirees' purchasing power. So how much will pensions increase in January 2026? How much will the lowest pension increase in January? This is how to calculate the pension increase based on inflation expectations in 6 months.
Calculation of January pension increase begins to be carried out based on 6-month inflation forecast. With inflation data due to be published in December, the salaries of millions of retirees will increase between January and June 2026. After Minister Şimşek announced a year-end inflation forecast of 31%, predictions began to be made about the monthly inflation that will be published in December. So what will the pension be based on the 6-month inflation differential?
What will be the inflation difference in 6 months?
With Minister Şimşek's announcement of a year-end inflation forecast of 31%, it has become clear which direction monthly inflation will go in December.
If year-end inflation reaches 31%, December inflation data is expected to be released at around 1%.
While total inflation is expected to be 12.31%, the inflation gap is estimated to be around 6.96%.
HOW MUCH WILL PENSION SALIES INCREASE IN JANUARY 2026?
If December inflation is announced to be 1%, total inflation will be 12.31%. In pension calculations, salary increases are made according to the total inflation rate and not the inflation differential.
As a result, the salaries of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will increase by 12.31%.
HOW MUCH WILL BE THE LOWEST RETIREMENT SALARY?
In recent years, the government has increased the lowest pension rate based on the current rate. The current lowest pension is about 16 thousand 881 lira.
As Minister Şimşek said, if year-end inflation is announced at 31%, monthly inflation will be around 1% in December. According to these calculations, the lowest pension will increase to 18 thousand 959 liras in January 2026.
