Fitch Ratings confirmed Türkiye's credit rating at “BB-“. The credit rating outlook was changed from “stable” to “positive”.
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has published its January 2026 Türkiye report.
As expected, the agency confirmed Türkiye's credit rating as “BB-” and changed the credit rating outlook from “stable” to “positive”.
In its statement, Fitch said that the decision reflects a faster-than-expected increase in foreign exchange reserves and an improvement in reserve quality.
The statement also noted the reduction in foreign currency contingent liabilities and “further reduction in external vulnerabilities” supported by the continuation of relatively tight macroeconomic policies.
It was stated that total foreign exchange reserves increased from $155 billion at the end of 2024 to $205 billion in mid-January. It should be noted that net reserves, excluding swaps, recovered from negative $66 billion to $78 billion in March 2024.
3.5 EXPECTED GROWTH IN 2026
In the statement, it was highlighted that the real policy interest rate in Türkiye is expected to be 4.5% at the end of 2026 and 2% at the end of 2027, and that inflation is expected to decline to 19.5% at the end of 2027. In the statement that also mentioned growth expectations for the Turkish economy, it was stated that the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in the country is estimated to be 3.5% this year. 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.
In the statement, it was stated that Türkiye's credit rating could be upgraded if confidence in the sustainability of the policy framework supporting a permanent decline in inflation increases, external buffers are significantly enhanced and the need for external financing is permanently reduced, the risk of political shock decreases, or steps are taken to strengthen governance and institutional capacity.
The statement also addressed factors that could negatively impact credit ratings, pointing out that inflation, increasing balance of payments and macro-financial pressures, significant declines in reserves or decline in reserve composition, political conditions, domestic security or international relations negatively affecting the economy and external finances could lead to a rating downgrade.
MOODY'S DOES NOT UPDATE Türkiye REVIEWS
International credit rating agency Moody's announced that it has completed a periodic assessment of Türkiye but has not yet made a decision on the credit rating.
Moody's issued a statement regarding the review on January 15. In its statement, it emphasized that this does not imply a change in the credit rating and is not an indication of whether there will be a change in the credit rating in the short term. It is stated that Türkiye's credit rating is supported by its large, diverse and dynamic economy and low public debt.
The statement stated that the Central Bank's monetary policy continues to tighten despite the ongoing cycle of interest rate cuts and that inflation, at 30.9% in December 2025, is expected to decline to 22% annually by the end of 2026.
GROWTH RATE APPROPRIATE TO TARGET
The statement stated that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is estimated to increase from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, influenced by unexpectedly strong domestic demand and a growth rate consistent with the government's goal of reducing inflation without excessive economic slowdown.
In the statement, it was emphasized that fiscal consolidation would support deflation by 2025 and noted that the central government's fiscal deficit had shrunk significantly, down from 4.7% in 2024 to 2.9%.
It was also emphasized that credit ratings could be upgraded if policies that restore macroeconomic stability and allow for a significant reduction in external instability risks continue to be effectively implemented.
Moody's last increased Türkiye's credit rating from “B1” to “Ba3” on July 25, 2025, and changed the rating outlook from “positive” to “stable”. The organization is expected to carry out its next planned review of Türkiye on July 24.
